Impact of Climate Change
Having described Climate Change on the page Fact or Fiction, an overview is given here on the impact of Climate Change on our society in the near and long term future.
In short - Overview
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​​Lower in this section, you will find how Climate Change will show itself in terms of temperature rise, sea level rise, migration, agriculture and conflict respectively.
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In the tables on the right, you can find an overview of what will happen for 2 different scenarios:
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Limiting Global Warming to +2°C
(drastically changing our ways)
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Global Warming reaching >+4 °C
(coming short of drastic change)
Temperature Rise
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Maybe you have already heard scientists talk about limiting temperature increase to 2 °C. 2 degrees doesn't sound much. But these are average global temperatures over land and sea. What does that mean for where I live?
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In the picture on the right, you can see the global change in temperature for the different regions of the world for different scenario's.
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If you live in Europe or North America, climate scientists predict the following:
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Best case scenario (RCP2.6):
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​Average temperatures rise about 2 °C by 2100
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We don't change our behavior (RCP8.5):
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​Average temperatures rise about 5°C by 2100
Average temperatures rise about 10 °C by 2200
Source - IPCC 4th Assessment Report
Sea Level Rise
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It does not seem very hard to understand: Climate Change is heating up our atmosphere, ice is melting and sea water level will rise.
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Although, melting ice is certainly contributing to the rise of sea water level, the most important factor is actually the expansion of the sea water itself. Like almost all things on this planet, water takes up more space when it's heated.
But, in the case of our oceans, the amount of water is so vast and reaches so deep under the surface, the response is slow. Like the water you heat for cooking: It takes long to heat., but once the temperature is reached, it also stays warm for a long time.
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This is why our scientists are virtually certain that water levels will continue to rise for many centuries, long after we have stopped producing greenhouse gases (GHG), displacing hundreds of millions of people in it's process.
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In other words: How we act the next years and decades will lock us into a future sea level for the next centuries (Lock-in, meaning an irreversible change for the next centuries to come):
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Depending on the path we choose, by 2100 global sea level will have increased by:
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A very good way of visualizing our future sea level, can be found on the website Climate Central. Look up the region where you live and the ones that are highly populated and see for yourselff how drastically this would change our society.
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Best case scenario (RCP2.6):
Sea level rises with 0.5m by 2100
Future irreversible sea level rise of 5m
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We don't change our behavior (RCP8.5):
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Sea level rises with 1m by 2100
Future irreversible sea level rise of 9m
Source - Climate Central
Future Migration
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It is difficult to put an exact number on the amount of people that are migrating and will be migrating due to Climate Change. People migrate due to many reasons like hunger, drought, war and conflict. And it is well documented that Climate Change can trigger all of these.
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The International Organization for Migration Future states that forecasts vary from 25 million to 1000 million environmental migrants by 2050.
Only based on sea level rises, Climate Central comes to the following estimation:
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This is a estimation that only takes into account flooding. It does not consider migration due to other factor like war and hunger.
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To put these numbers into perspective: The ongoing Syrian Civil War has caused the biggest refugee crisis of our time:
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4.9 million Syrian refugees worldwide
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About 1 million of thosehave requested asylum to Europe
In other words:
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Best case scenario:
Irreversible future flooding of land currently inhabited by 130 million people
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We don't change our behavior:
Flooding of land inhabited by 147 to 216 million by 2100
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Irreversible future flooding of land currently inhabited by 470-760 million people
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The amount of people displaced due to flooding by 2100 will equal about 30 to 40 times the current Syrian refugees
Drought and changing weather
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Climate Change will cause more droughts in already dry regions and more rain and flooding in already wet regions. Storms and hurricanes will become more frequent and more extreme.
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According to IPCC's 5th Assessment Report "The flow and storage of water in the Earth’s climate system is highly variable, but changes beyond those due to natural variability are expected by the end of the current century. In a warmer world, there will be net increases in rainfall, surface evaporation and plant transpiration. However, there will be substantial differences in the changes between locations. Some places will experience more precipitation and an accumulation of water on land. In others, the amount of water will decrease, due to regional drying and loss of snow and ice cover."
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Some parts of the world will be significantly dryer and other parts will be wetter. In general terms, it is expected that differences between regions will become more extreme.
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Tropical regions and regions around the Poles will become wetter
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Already dry regions like the Mediterranean, southwest USA, and southern Africa and South America will become dryer
Source - IPCC Technical Paper VI
Agriculture
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Agriculture is closely linked with temperature and weather. So it is clear that Climate Change is affecting and will be affecting agriculture and food production.
In a significant number of regions, the effect of drought or flooding will have negative effects on agriculture. However, there are regions (like currently colder zones on the planet) that will experience a positive impact from climate change on their agricultural potential.
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In general different regions, by will experience the effects shown in the table to the right by 2050.
Armed Conflict & War
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In recent years, more attention has been given to the possible link between Armed Conflict and Climate Change.
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This potential link, is more difficult to assess as, compared to most of the previous Impacts, Armed Conflict is a human action rather than a physical or biological one.
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Therefore the degree of impact that Climate Change may have on Armed Conflicts and War might always be subject to discussion.
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Nevertheless, recent studies have increasingly identified Climate Change as a contributing factor to Armed Conflict.
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For one, The United States Department of Defense is developing policies and plans to respond to and manage the effects of Climate Change and has been warning for the security risks linked to Climate Change as early as 2004.
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A long period of exceptional drought in Syria from 2006 to 2011 has been pointed to as possibly being a catalyst for the Syrian civil war.
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In January 2017 UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated Climate Change as one of the major catalysts for conflict.
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A recently study published in the scientific journal Science (Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict - S. M. Hsiang et. al) showed, both for historic and current events a significant correlation between conflicts and periods with significant increases in temperature or and rainfall.
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Source - Science published paper
Source - Science published paper
It is difficult to definitively prove an absolute direct link between Armed Conflict and Climate Change
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The role of Climate Change as a catalyst in igniting Conflict in regions that are already under tension, has been aknowledged by a wide range of different entities
We choose the scenario... Now
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Since the 1960s, we have already increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere with 30% currently causing the first Climate measurable Change effects.
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The scenario of "not changing our behavior" would mean adding 150% to the current greenhouse gas concentration by 2100, causing a climatic shock of which our human civilisation cannot withstand.
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That is why the severity of Climate Change is completely dependent on the choices we make as a society in the next 15 to 30 years.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describe a couple of possible scenarios that can unfold depending on how we act as a society in the following years:
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Often governments and scientists speak about the necessity of "limiting global warming to an average temperature of 2°C" to avoid the worst. Current scientific evidence indicate only RCP2.6 to be able to reach this goal.
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So, we choose the scenario now...wether we like it or not. Because not acting right now, is the choice with the most drastic consequences.
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Source - IPCC
"We don't change our behavior" (RCP8.5) - video
"We reduce emissions, but not enough" (RCP6.0) - video
"We drastically change our ways and almost completely stop CO2 emissions by 2050-2080" (RCP2.6/RCP4.5) - video
"Not changing right now is the choice with the most drastic consequences"